Does a player's unranked win rate predict how they do in AD2L better than their ranked win rate? Across all seasons, among players with a lot of unranked games, yes. Unranked tracks league results more closely than ranked does, and players who rarely queue ranked win a little more in the league. Pick seasons below to see whether that holds in any stretch of time.
Everything in this part follows the season picker: AD2L record and the matchmaking games played during the selected seasons.
Each dot is a player. Dot size is the number of AD2L games. Matchmaking win rates count games from the selected seasons the player played in, each season including the off-season before it. The line is a least-squares fit.
Rank sitting means queueing mostly unranked, which keeps the visible medal frozen while the hidden matchmaking rating keeps moving. The chart plots each player's share of matchmaking games that were ranked. Players under 20% are marked as rank sitters.
Every RD2L sign-up asked for an MMR screenshot. Reading the number off those screenshots (2023–2026; earlier links are mostly dead) gives a dated MMR history for some players. AD2L Mini sign-ups (Winter 2025, Summer 2025, Spring 2026) and League of Lads Mini draft sheets (March and Summer 2025, Spring 2026) add a self-reported MMR, dated by the sign-up or by the day the sheet was posted. Where a self-report and a screenshot sit within a few months of each other they mostly agree (median difference near 0), though Lads entries are often rounded (9,000, 10,000). The table covers every player with 10+ AD2L games in the selected seasons and 3 or more readings spanning at least a year, ranked by how much their MMR moved (standard deviation). Switch between steadiest and most movement, and page through all of them. Readings stop at Jul 2026, before the MMR compression.
The line shows each reading over time on that player's own scale; filled dots are RD2L screenshots, hollow dots are Mini self-reports (AD2L or Lads). Hover it for the dates and values. AD2L and matchmaking columns follow the season chips. The text recognition misses some screenshots, and players sometimes reuse an old one, so a reading's date is the sign-up date, not always when the screenshot was taken.
The default sort is the 95% lower bound of AD2L win rate (Wilson), which keeps a 10–1 run from outranking a long record. Ranked share = ranked games ÷ (ranked + unranked + turbo). For whole-history win rates, see Part 2.
Every game OpenDota has on record for each player's accounts (alts merged), with no season window. The season picker does not apply here. All 503 players are listed.
Unranked leaves out Turbo. Lobby is league and practice lobbies: AD2L and every other league, scrims and inhouses (OpenDota does not split them). AD2L S34–S48 is the player's whole AD2L record, also unaffected by the picker; RD2L is their record in that league over the seasons we have (S26–S38). Ranked games hidden while a player was above 8,500 MMR are missing here too, and for long-time players old games dominate.